•As jet A1 crisis persists
By Chinelo Obogo
Nigeria’s aviation sector has recorded its sharpest reversal in nearly two years, with air transport output dipping to 47.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, wiping off much of the gains made during the sector’s 2025 recovery.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Gross Domestic Product report show that air transport generated N55.74 billion in economic output in Q1 2026 which is down from N105.77 billion in the same period last year, showing a loss of about N50.03 billion. The marks the sector’s first nominal decline since the 8.92% drop recorded in Q1 2024.
Air transport had expanded by 57.21% in Q1 2025, before dropping again through the year and slowing to 30.60% in Q2, 2.88% in Q3, and 18.02% in Q4 before finally entering negative territory. This slump came despite Nigeria’s economy growing by 3.89% in real terms during the quarter. Air transport accounted for just 0.05% of nominal GDP in Q1 2026, down from 0.11% a year earlier, reflecting both lower activity levels and a reduced contribution to national output.
Real output declined 7.62% year-on-year, a decline from the 0.81% contraction recorded in Q1 2025. At constant 2019 prices, aviation output fell to N33.66 billion from N36.44 billion a year earlier, showing a decline in activity.
The slump in the aviation affected the transportation and storage sector, which posted nominal growth of 6.51% in Q1 2026, a fraction of the 53.56% recorded in Q1 2025 and the 39.62% expansion seen in Q4 2025. The sector’s share of nominal GDP dropped to 1.36%, from 1.51% a year earlier and 1.55% in the preceding quarter.
In real terms, transportation and storage grew 7.41% in Q1 2026, moderating from 14.08% in the same period last year and 21.25% in the previous quarter. The NBS noted that the sector accounted for 1.02% of real GDP in Q1 2026, slightly above the 0.99% recorded a year earlier.
This data is a reflection of the financial pressure on the sector as domestic airlines have been in dire straits as a result of jet A1 crisis. Many airlines have had to reduce their frequencies in order to cope with the crippling cost of fuel which at a point exceeded N3000 per liter.
Besides the increase in cost of fuel, airlines have been grappling with the longstanding issue of multiple charges and taxation.
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